Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. A range of diverse climate models are available projecting different future warming scenarios. The climate models were retrieved from NetCDF files and are based on mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST). The temperature difference has been calculated as follows:
Climate projection (MANST years 2070-2099) - observation (MANST years 1970-2000). For each climate model, there is a low prognosis (4.5) and a high prognosis (8.5).
Here, we provide a range of climate change prediction maps based on the different climate models viewable in Google Earth (KML & KMZ format).
Due to the great diversity displayed in the 15 climate models presented futher below, we calculated the average over all of them and created an average climate model for low prognosis and high prognosis temperature increase, respectively.
| Climate model Name | Description | Low prognosis rcp 4.5 |
High prognosis rcp 8.5 | ||||||
| Min |
Max | Avg |
Download KMZ |
Min | Max | Avg |
Download KMZ |
||
| Average Climate Model |
Averaged climate models produced by GTN-P and Arctic Portal from all models listed bellow. | 0.8°C | 7.4°C | 2.3°C |  |
1.4°C | 11.3°C | 4.1°C | |
Listed mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST) Climate prediction (MANST years 2070-2099) - Observations (MANST years 1970-2000) Climate models are presented by name, description, Min, Max, Avg temperature increase for low and high prognosis. All models are downloadable in KMZ to be read with Google Earth
| Climate model Name | Description | Low prognosis rcp 4.5 | High prognosis rcp 8.5 | ||||||
| Min | Max | Avg | Download KMZ | Min | Max | Avg | Download KMZ | ||
| ACCESS1-0 |
Assessment of forced responses of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal |
-1.6°C | 9.4°C | 2.7°C | |
0.3°C | 14.8°C | 4.7°C | |
|
bcc-csm1-1 |
Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1) developed at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China |
-0.7°C | 9.9°C | 2.2°C | |
0.4°C | 13°C | 4°C | |
| CanESM2 |
Developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis |
0.8°C | 12.6°C | 3°C | |
1.6°C | 16.3°C | 5.3°C | |
| CCSM4 |
The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), USA |
0.3°C | 7°C | 2.3°C | |
0.5°C | 11.8°C | 4.4°C | |
| CNRM-CM5 |
Developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (Groupe d’études de l’Atmosphère Météorologique and Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée), France |
0.7°C | 15.2°C | 2.7°C | |
1.7°C | 18.7°C | 4.4°C | |
| CSIRO-MK3-6-0 |
Developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research |
-5.7°C | 6.8°C | 2.5°C | |
-2.5°C | 11.4°C | 4.2°C | |
| GISS-E2-H |
Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA |
0.2°C | 9.5°C | 2°C | |
0°C | 13.2°C | 3.5°C | |
| GISS-E2-R |
Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA |
-3.2°C | 6.2°C | 1.5°C | |
-2°C | 9.5°C | 2.8°C | |
| HadGEM2-ES |
Developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, UK |
-2°C | 15.1°C | 3.5°C | |
-0.5°C | 19.3°C | 5.7°C | |
| inmcm4 |
Developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119991, Russia |
-0.5°C | 6°C | 1.6°C | |
0.4°C | 9.8°C | 3.1°C | |
| IPSL-CM5A-LR |
Earth System Model for the 5th IPCC report. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France |
-0.2°C | 11.6°C | 2.7°C | |
0.6°C | 13.7°C | 4.8°C | |
| MIROC-ESM |
Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC) is a coupled general circulation model developed at Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo, Japan |
0.4°C | 10.9°C | 3.2°C | |
0.8°C | 14.7°C | 5.3°C | |
| MPI-ESM-LR |
Developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany |
-0.3°C | 7.4°C | 1.9°C | |
0.1°C | 12.6°C | 3.8°C | |
| MRI-CGCM3 |
Developed by the Meteorological Society of Japan |
-5.7°C | 9.4°C | 2°C | |
-4.5°C | 13.4°C | 3.6°C | |
| NorESM1-M | Developed by the Norwegian Climate Center | -0.7°C | 8.6°C | 2.2°C | |
0°C | 11.9°C | 3.8°C | |
Designed and developed by Arctic Portal (technical) and AWI (science and project management). Co-hosted by Arctic Portal and AWI 
