Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) - Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P)

Projected climate change

Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. A range of diverse climate models are available projecting different future warming scenarios. The climate models were retrieved from NetCDF files and are based on mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST). The temperature difference has been calculated as follows:

Climate projection (MANST years 2070-2099) - observation (MANST years 1970-2000). For each climate model, there is a low prognosis (4.5) and a high prognosis (8.5).

Here, we provide a range of climate change prediction maps based on the different climate models viewable in Google Earth (KML & KMZ format).

AVERAGE CLIMATE MODELS

Due to the great diversity displayed in the 15 climate models presented futher below, we calculated the average over all of them and created an average climate model for low prognosis and high prognosis temperature increase, respectively.

Climate model Name	Description	Low prognosis rcp 4.5				High prognosis rcp 8.5
		Min	Max	Avg	Download KMZ	Min	Max	Avg	Download KMZ
Average Climate Model	Averaged climate models produced by GTN-P and Arctic Portal from all models listed bellow.	0.8°C	7.4°C	2.3°C		1.4°C	11.3°C	4.1°C

CLIMATE MODELS

Listed mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST) Climate prediction (MANST years 2070-2099) - Observations (MANST years 1970-2000) Climate models are presented by name, description, Min, Max, Avg temperature increase for low and high prognosis. All models are downloadable in KMZ to be read with Google Earth

Climate model Name	Description	Low prognosis rcp 4.5				High prognosis rcp 8.5
		Min	Max	Avg	Download KMZ	Min	Max	Avg	Download KMZ
ACCESS1-0	Assessment of forced responses of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal	-1.6°C	9.4°C	2.7°C		0.3°C	14.8°C	4.7°C
bcc-csm1-1	Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1) developed at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China	-0.7°C	9.9°C	2.2°C		0.4°C	13°C	4°C
CanESM2	Developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis	0.8°C	12.6°C	3°C		1.6°C	16.3°C	5.3°C
CCSM4	The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), USA	0.3°C	7°C	2.3°C		0.5°C	11.8°C	4.4°C
CNRM-CM5	Developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (Groupe d’études de l’Atmosphère Météorologique and Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée), France	0.7°C	15.2°C	2.7°C		1.7°C	18.7°C	4.4°C
CSIRO-MK3-6-0	Developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research	-5.7°C	6.8°C	2.5°C		-2.5°C	11.4°C	4.2°C
GISS-E2-H	Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA	0.2°C	9.5°C	2°C		0°C	13.2°C	3.5°C
GISS-E2-R	Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA	-3.2°C	6.2°C	1.5°C		-2°C	9.5°C	2.8°C
HadGEM2-ES	Developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, UK	-2°C	15.1°C	3.5°C		-0.5°C	19.3°C	5.7°C
inmcm4	Developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119991, Russia	-0.5°C	6°C	1.6°C		0.4°C	9.8°C	3.1°C
IPSL-CM5A-LR	Earth System Model for the 5th IPCC report. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France	-0.2°C	11.6°C	2.7°C		0.6°C	13.7°C	4.8°C
MIROC-ESM	Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC) is a coupled general circulation model developed at Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo, Japan	0.4°C	10.9°C	3.2°C		0.8°C	14.7°C	5.3°C
MPI-ESM-LR	Developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany	-0.3°C	7.4°C	1.9°C		0.1°C	12.6°C	3.8°C
MRI-CGCM3	Developed by the Meteorological Society of Japan	-5.7°C	9.4°C	2°C		-4.5°C	13.4°C	3.6°C
NorESM1-M	Developed by the Norwegian Climate Center	-0.7°C	8.6°C	2.2°C		0°C	11.9°C	3.8°C

Welcome to the GTN-P Intranet

Here you get access to supplementary materials such as the GTN-P Strategy and Implementation Plan 2012-2016 and workshop/meeting documents.

GTN-P PAGE21 WP8 meeting minutes 20 June 2014 Évora, Portugal

Download the protocol here.

The work package 8 meeting was held on 20 June 2014 in Évora, Portugal. Participants were: Hugues Lantuit, Vladimir Romanovsky, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Pierre Lanckman, and Boris Biskaborn. The participants discussed the issues of NetCDF files for modellers, DOIs, the ESSD-paper on metadata statistics, data embargo, interactions with national correspondents, and the GTN-P website.

GTN-P Workshop 19-23 Feb 2014 in Akureyri, Iceland

Download full report for this workshop

From the 19th to the 23rd of February 2014 a GTN-P Database Workshop is held in Akureyri, Iceland. Boris Biskaborn (Data Manager of GTN-P) and Karina Schollän (Executive Director of the IPA) met Jean-Pierre Lanckman and colleagues from the Arctic Portal to discuss the dissemination of the new GTN-P database. The team discuss the most important provisions of the current state of the GTN-P database and the workload that needs to be accomplished before the official GTN-P database launch coming soon.