Projected climate change

 

Climate model illustration

Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. A range of diverse climate models are available projecting different future warming scenarios. The climate models were retrieved from NetCDF files and are based on mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST). The temperature difference has been calculated as follows:

Climate projection (MANST years 2070-2099) - observation (MANST years 1970-2000). For each climate model, there is a low prognosis (4.5) and a high prognosis (8.5).

Here, we provide a range of climate change prediction maps based on the different climate models viewable in Google Earth (KML & KMZ format).

 

 

AVERAGE CLIMATE MODELS

Due to the great diversity displayed in the 15 climate models presented futher below, we calculated the average over all of them and created an average climate model for low prognosis and high prognosis temperature increase, respectively.

 

Climate model Name Description Low prognosis rcp 4.5
High prognosis rcp 8.5
Min
Max Avg

Download KMZ

Min Max Avg

Download KMZ

Average Climate Model
Averaged climate models produced by GTN-P and Arctic Portal from all models listed bellow. 0.8°C 7.4°C 2.3°C kmz icon 1.4°C 11.3°C 4.1°C kmz icon

 

 

CLIMATE MODELS

Listed mean annual near surface temperatures (MANST) Climate prediction (MANST years 2070-2099) - Observations (MANST years 1970-2000) Climate models are presented by name, description, Min, Max, Avg temperature increase for low and high prognosis. All models are downloadable in KMZ to be read with Google Earth

 

Climate model Name Description Low prognosis rcp 4.5 High prognosis rcp 8.5
Min Max Avg Download KMZ Min Max Avg Download KMZ
 ACCESS1-0

Assessment of forced responses of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

-1.6°C 9.4°C 2.7°C kmz icon 0.3°C 14.8°C 4.7°C kmz icon

bcc-csm1-1

Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1) developed at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China

-0.7°C 9.9°C 2.2°C  kmz icon 0.4°C 13°C 4°C  kmz icon
CanESM2

Developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

0.8°C 12.6°C 3°C kmz icon 1.6°C 16.3°C 5.3°C kmz icon
CCSM4

The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), USA

0.3°C 7°C 2.3°C kmz icon 0.5°C 11.8°C 4.4°C kmz icon
CNRM-CM5

Developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (Groupe d’études de l’Atmosphère Météorologique and Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée), France

0.7°C 15.2°C 2.7°C kmz icon 1.7°C 18.7°C 4.4°C kmz icon
CSIRO-MK3-6-0

Developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

-5.7°C 6.8°C 2.5°C kmz icon -2.5°C 11.4°C 4.2°C kmz icon
GISS-E2-H

Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA

0.2°C 9.5°C 2°C kmz icon 0°C 13.2°C 3.5°C kmz icon
GISS-E2-R

Developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA

-3.2°C 6.2°C 1.5°C kmz icon -2°C  9.5°C 2.8°C kmz icon
HadGEM2-ES

Developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

-2°C 15.1°C 3.5°C kmz icon -0.5°C 19.3°C 5.7°C kmz icon
inmcm4

Developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119991, Russia

-0.5°C 6°C 1.6°C kmz icon 0.4°C 9.8°C 3.1°C kmz icon
IPSL-CM5A-LR

Earth System Model for the 5th IPCC report. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France

-0.2°C 11.6°C 2.7°C kmz icon 0.6°C 13.7°C 4.8°C kmz icon
MIROC-ESM

Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC) is a coupled general circulation model developed at Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo, Japan

0.4°C 10.9°C 3.2°C kmz icon 0.8°C 14.7°C 5.3°C kmz icon
MPI-ESM-LR

Developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany

-0.3°C 7.4°C 1.9°C kmz icon 0.1°C 12.6°C 3.8°C kmz icon
MRI-CGCM3

Developed by the Meteorological Society of Japan

-5.7°C 9.4°C 2°C kmz icon -4.5°C 13.4°C 3.6°C kmz icon
NorESM1-M Developed by the Norwegian Climate Center -0.7°C 8.6°C 2.2°C kmz icon 0°C 11.9°C 3.8°C kmz icon
Protocols and good practices
Good and consistent working protocols and practices create the base for a successful usage of the data by a data management system.
Maps and Graphics
Useful Geospatial Layers produced by the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) or related to permafrost studies. We provide the downloads as different file types.
GTN-P - Database
Free central database for permafrost monitoring parameters. It is the one-stop location where the researcher can find data, metadata, and information of all relevant parameters for a specific site.
Global Monitoring Systems and Projects within PAGE21
Overview on international monitoring components (CALM, TSP) managed within the GTN-P database and global monitoring systems (DUE Permafrost, FLUXNET, INTERACT).

Citation Rules

Methods

Tutorials

Maps